The latest information appears to predict a “La Nina” and positive “North Atlantic Oscillation” (NAO+) which would forecast a colder than normal start to the season (which is great for freezing the ground so the first snowfall sticks) followed by a mild, wet winter which normally brings abundant snow to the higher ski resorts, such as Chamonix, Val d’Isere, Tignes.

Last season was an El Nino and NAO- which resulted in the coldest UK winter in 30 years with 7 consecutive days where the temperature did not exceed zero degrees celsius.

Post-1950 years with La Nina and NAO+ are in green. Source: pistehors.com Red line shows 5th order polynomial trend line

This got me thinking about snow forecasts in ski resorts around the world. How many times have you looked at the official forecast before you left the UK and seen snow forecast that when you get to resort just never materialises. This happened to us in the week before Christmas in the Three Valleys, Snow was forecast for the whole week whilst we were there, but apart from a dusting on the night before our arrival it was clear blue skies for 5 out of 7 of the ski days. Of course the inaccurate snow that was forecast could well be due to the fact that long term forecasting still isn’t an accurate science. But maybe, and maybe I’m being cynical, some is due to over exaggeration by the ski resorts themselves.

Although I haven’t been able to do any studies myself on my assumption a clever fellow, John Zinman, in the US has done some research on this exact subject. They conclude in their study that US ski resorts do inflate snow levels but that this is now being affected by the use of iphones allowing people in resorts to update snow falls as they happen and thus “out” all the incorrect reports.

Zinman’s report suggest that US resorts on average forecast 23 percent more snowfall on weekends, of course this is extremely unlikely to be true, unless the weather knows when the weekend is! There is some evidence that those resorts that benefit greater from local weekend skiiers exaggerate their snowfall more than those that rely more on week long visitors. They then go on to report that new iphone applications are now reducing the levels of exaggerations in resorts that have good iphone reception. Obviously resorts have realised that they will no longer get away with greatly exaggerating snow fall, as those on the ground with access to the internet through their phones will very quickly pick up on it. Zinman’s full report can be found here .

Access to twitter and blogging accounts will no doubt even further dissuade ski resorts to release inaccurate exaggerated snow reports, these days if I really want to know what’s happening in resort I put out a quick tweet and I get a response back saying what the weather is doing there and then!

This report was based on US resorts only, however I imagine it could be applied to European resorts also. So basically the advice before you go is, don’t believe everything you read from the ski resorts snow forecasts and look to blogs and twitter reports for on the ground snow reporting.

http://www.snow-forecast.com
By far the most comprehensive snow forecast site available. Subscription service where you can access a bounty of information, including historical reports and weather maps. A six day report is available for free.

http://www.bbc.co.uk
If you’re used to the BBC’s weather forecasting then this is the one for you but cannot compete with snow-forecast for number of resorts.

http://www.weather.co.uk
Not ideal but does have a good long range forecast.

http://www.skiclub.co.uk
On the ground reports from ski club reps.

http://france.meteofrance.com/france/montagne
Only good if you’re skiing in France, but very good with nice graphics!!

I tend to use a mixture of all these sites often opting for the site which gives me the forecast I want to hear!!